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HSBC expects Fed's final rate hike on Feb. 1, cuts next year
11 Jan 2023
美联储可能会在 1 月 31 日至 2 月 31 日最后一次上调目标利率。汇丰银行周三在一份研究报告中表示,1 次货币政策会议将其上调 50 个基点 (bps),至 4.75%-5.00% 的区间。
该行还预计明年美国央行将降息约 50 个基点。
不过,美国利率期货市场已经消化了 2 月和 3 月两次 25 个基点的加息。在 6 月的政策会议上,联邦基金利率的峰值有望触及略低于 5%。
美联储去年将基准隔夜利率从接近零的水平上调了 425 个基点至目前的 4.25%-4.50% 区间,为 2007 年底以来的最高水平。上个月,它预计至少会再增加 75 个基点到今年年底的借贷成本。
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said this week that the policy rate needs to rise to a 5.00%-5.25% range to curb inflation that, by the U.S. central bank's preferred gauge, is running almost three times its 2% target.
Fed policymakers overall said they are encouraged by the recent slowdown in jobs and wages, suggesting it is likely that inflation will continue slowing.
But they are hesitant to halt the rate hikes or reduce the size of the increases too soon without inflation under control. That could ultimately force the Fed to raise borrowing costs further.
In the research report, HSBC also said it anticipates the European Central Bank will deliver 50-basis-point rate increases in February and March, taking the deposit rate to 3% where it is expected to stay for the foreseeable future.
The ECB has tightened rates by a total of 2.5 percentage points since July and promised "a steady pace" of hikes over the coming months, but some of its officials have started to argue that rates may be nearing their peak given a looming recession.
Finnish central bank chief Olli Rehn said on Wednesday the ECB must still raise rates "significantly" over its coming meetings to restrict economic growth and dampen inflation, which has been far too high.
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