在稍后的主要技术收益之前，Meta 结果在周四点亮了纳斯达克综合指数。标准普尔 500 SPX 指数也上涨，因为投资者对美联储会议的看法是半透明的。
LaDucTrading.com 的创始人萨曼莎·拉杜克 (Samantha LaDuc) 担心投资者会被美联储的另一个误读所控制。“市场既没有定价更高的终端利率，也没有定价增长放缓或衰退。其中一个或多个假设是错误的。我的赌注：美联储会长期走高。他们不会在 2023 年减产，除非他们有理由这样做，”她说。
MarketWatch last spoke to LaDuc, who specializes in timing major market inflections, last May when she predicted the S&P 500 would finish 2022 around 3,800 — it finished at 3,859. Another call she nailed was her early 2022 warning of a coming “tech wreck,” predicting a 20% Nasdaq slump in 2022 — it ended the year down 33%.
In our call of the day, LaDuc says cash is the place to be and that investors are “being paid to wait. They’re getting very favorable 4.5% on their sitting cash.”
Even though the dollar has lost 8% in the last 12 weeks, “the money you put in money-market funds is earning 4.5% right now, whereas before it was earning 0.4% or 0.5%,” she said in a Wednesday interview.
“So the Fed hiking has motivated a kind of paid-to-wait while the market stabilizes. I don’t think Treasurys are a safe bet for this year. I really can see no outperformance in bonds, and I think equities have more risk to the downside than upside,” said LaDuc.
She’s specifically worried about tech, saying the Nasdaq likely has one leg down left to go before the selloff is all over.
She explains that analysts are predicting an earnings recession through the fourth quarter of 2023, and not an economic recession. “They literally expect Q4 to pop up about 10% in earnings because of favorable comps— comparisons for the prior year.
“The problem with that is that the earnings analysis does not in any way, shape or form consider a recession, and it absolutely assumes moderate growth,” says LaDuc. “So we still have Goldilocks all priced in equities and priced into earnings.”
A growth to value rotation has been a key prediction for LaDuc since July 2020 when she started to call for “things over paper,” predicting a shift to oversold commodities, cyclicals and large-cap value plays with rates bottoming.
While that rotation “absolutely outperformed” in both 2021 and 2022, she says it will trade less well this year because inflation expectations have come down.
The bottom line? Rather than buy that stock market dip, investors should short the rip higher, she says.
Her last observation is tied to gold GC00 — and she says she’s not a gold bug, but that her trend indicators are now “firing” for the precious metal for the first time in years.
Gold can be a tough call because it has to be “timed perfectly” and typically isn’t an outperformer, apart from a 1970s ride higher as an inflation hedge. What has changed is that last year central banks bought the most gold last year since 1967.
“It’s the lack of counterparty risk that is driving the central bank desire for more control of gold that bears watching right now,” said LaDuc.
